As Africa positions itself as a global hub for business process outsourcing (BPO), new research warns that nearly 40 percent of tasks in the continent’s growing tech outsourcing sector could be taken over by artificial intelligence by the end of the decade.
The study, conducted by Caribou Digital and Genesis Analytics in partnership with the Mastercard Foundation, reveals that AI-powered automation could profoundly reshape the continent’s digital labor market. Customer experience roles, which account for 44 percent of current employment in the sector, are particularly vulnerable, with half of the tasks in those jobs potentially automatable.
In Kenya, the stakes are high. The country’s BPO market is expected to generate $272 million in revenue this year, with projections reaching $343 million by 2029, according to government data. President William Ruto’s administration has pledged to create one million BPO and IT-enabled services (ITES) jobs over the next five years, backed by incentives and policy reforms. But analysts caution that automation could alter that trajectory.
“Africa is on the cusp of a digital employment revolution, but it’s also staring down a transformation it must prepare for urgently,” said Joan Muriuki, a Nairobi-based digital economy strategist who contributed to the report. “AI won’t just change the tasks we do—it will change who gets to do them.”
The report outlines that only 10 percent of tasks in the tech outsourcing industry are fully resistant to automation. The rest fall into varying degrees of susceptibility, with entry-level roles—comprising nearly 70 percent of the workforce—at the greatest risk. Tasks like routine customer service queries, invoice processing, and basic coding are already being handled by AI systems such as Microsoft Copilot, ChatGPT, and enterprise-grade chatbots across several African outsourcing firms.
Still, experts believe the moment presents an opportunity—if harnessed wisely. By investing in targeted training and digital literacy, African nations could help workers pivot into higher-skilled, better-paying positions in fields like data science, cybersecurity, and AI governance.
“If we act now, we can turn automation into a catalyst for inclusive growth,” said Wambui Kimathi, director of workforce development at Genesis Analytics. “But this window is closing fast, especially for women and young people.”
The gender disparity in automation risk is particularly striking. Tasks typically assigned to women are, on average, 10 percent more automatable than those assigned to men, the report found. Without swift intervention, experts warn, automation could deepen existing inequalities in a sector often praised for its inclusivity.
“Young women in Africa already face disproportionate barriers to entering and thriving in tech,” Kimathi said. “If AI-driven displacement is left unchecked, we risk reinforcing those divides at scale.”
African BPO workers are already adapting to AI in real time. In Nairobi’s Westlands neighborhood, 27-year-old content moderator and support specialist Alice Omondi says she uses generative AI tools daily to handle customer queries and create basic reports.
“At first, I was scared AI might replace me,” she said. “Now, I use it to do my job better—and faster. But I know I need to keep learning if I want to stay relevant.”
According to the report, the continent’s BPO and ITES workforce must undergo broad-based upskilling to unlock Africa’s projected $35 billion outsourcing opportunity by 2028. That means expanding access to AI literacy programs, investing in ethical AI policy frameworks, and reimagining job design in ways that center worker agency and creativity.
“This isn’t just about jobs—it’s about dignity, identity, and economic resilience,” said Paul Banda, a technology policy fellow at the African Development Institute. “If we don’t prepare now, automation won’t just eliminate tasks. It will erode livelihoods.”
Finance and accounting roles in the outsourcing space are also expected to see significant disruption, especially at junior levels. Two-thirds of tasks performed by early-career professionals in these roles could be automated by 2030, the report found.
To mitigate these risks, Caribou and Genesis recommend public-private partnerships to build a safety net for displaced workers and expand AI-focused technical education. There’s also a call for employers to rethink hiring practices, giving more weight to adaptability and digital fluency than to specific degrees or credentials.
The report’s authors say there is still time to act—but not much.
“We can’t afford to wait and see,” said Miriam Odinga, lead researcher at Caribou. “The choices African governments and companies make today will shape whether automation leaves millions behind—or propels a new era of shared prosperity.”
